Above: U.S. troops have been conducting weapons searches in Mahmudiyah for months, as in this March 4 army photo
MOST EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS the grim news: today in Mahmudiyah an attack on 7 U.S. troops and an Iraqi interpreter has left 5 dead and 3 missing. But there may be a bigger story to come: the possibility of an Iranian link to the tragedy.
Although there were American/British grumblings about Iran supplying weapons and sophisticated roadside bombs going back at least a year, the American drumbeat about Iranian involvement has picked up significantly in volume and rhythm since February, with accusations and threats coming at various times from U.S. Intelligence chief McConnell, top U.S. commander General Petraeus, principal deputy assistant secretary of State for Near East Affairs Jim Jeffrey, U.S. military spokesman in Iraq General Caldwell, Commander for Southern Iraq Lynch, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Pace, and even President Bush...
The accusations go so far to allege Iranians run training camps on IED use in Iran and Lebanon, run their own network of insurgents and even of being caught supplying the Taliban.
THEN, ON APRIL 11, the U.S. threw a new twist into the mix, saying that Iranian-made arms, manufactured as recently as last year were in the hands of Sunni insurgents.
Even those with just a passing familiarity with Iraq were startled by this new accusation. Iran is fervently Shiite, as are the majority of Iraqis. The previous accusations had Iran supplying Shiite militias, which at least seemed plausible. But for Iran to be supplying Sunni insurgents -- who regularly aim car and truck bombs at masses of Shiite civilians -- stretched the limits of belief.
But the accusations continued, becoming part of the drumbeat and continuing as recently as two days ago.
NOW COMES THE SLAUGHTER of soldiers in Mahmudiyah today. Mahmudiyah is a 'mixed' area, oftentimes with the Shiite Mahdi Army and Sunni insurgents/al-Qaeda forces battling each other for control. It is, in fact, part of an area known as the 'Triangle of Death'.
And in the last two weeks, in that triangle, have come two announcements from the U.S. military:
First, on April 22...
Military: Raid seizes 'nearly new' Iranian-marked rockets, mortars in Mahmudiyah
Mahmudiyah, Iraq – A U.S. and Iraqi raid in a Mahmudiyah apartment complex detained eight suspected extremists and discovered three caches containing mortar systems, rockets and ammunition April 22...
Soldiers of 4th Battalion, 4th Brigade, 6th Iraqi Army Division and the 2nd Battalion, 15th Field Artillery Regiment of 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, from Fort Drum, N.Y., discovered the caches at about 6:30 p.m. local time.
Coalition forces have found many weapons caches in the Mahmudiyah area, but most rocket and mortar rounds found there have been deteriorated and apparently intended for use in improvised explosive devices.
In contrast, the 60mm and 82mm mortar systems, three 107mm rockets, three 60mm and three 82mm rounds found in the latest cache were nearly new.
Soldiers of the unit examined the weapons, which were stamped with recent dates and Iranian markings.
And then, 7 days ago...
Military: Iranian weapons cache found, destroyed in Mahmudiyah
MAHMUDIYAH, Iraq — Coalition forces discovered a weapons cache during a combat operation south of Baghdad.
Soldiers of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry) discovered four improvised explosive devices, components for 25 additional IEDs, seven 107mm Iranian rockets and an 81mm Iranian mortar in the Mahmudiyah area.
The contents of the cache were destroyed during a controlled detonation conducted by an explosive ordnance team.
But that's not all that may lead the military to publicly link today's events to Iran.
THERE WAS A SIMILAR TRAGEDY making headlines not so very long ago, when 5 soldiers were attacked and four kidnapped in Karbala. The four were subsequently executed.
The attack happened on January 20. By January 30, the following was being reported...
U.S.-Iraqi Sources: Iran suspected in abduction, execution of soldiers at Karbala; hint Sadr forces also involved
BAGHDAD, Jan. 30 — Investigators say they believe that attackers who used American-style uniforms and weapons to infiltrate a secure compound and kill five American soldiers in Karbala on Jan. 20 may have been trained and financed by Iranian agents, according to American and Iraqi officials knowledgeable about the inquiry.
The officials said the sophistication of the attack astonished investigators, who doubt that Iraqis could have carried it out on their own — one reason a connection to Iran is being closely examined. Officials cautioned that no firm conclusions had been drawn and did not reveal any direct evidence of a connection.
Not much was said after that, until just over two weeks ago...
Petraeus: Iran's Qods Force behind network of Iraq terror cells; Captured documents detail plan for Karbala ambush which killed 5 soldiers
WASHINGTON -- Iran's Qods Force funded, armed, and trained a network of secret Iraqi cells that kidnapped and killed five US soldiers in January in Karbala, the top US commander in Iraq said Thursday...
"There is no question that the Al Qazhali network was connected to the Iranian Qods Force - received money, training, arms, ammunition, and at some points in time even advice and assistance," Petraeus said.
Petraeus said the evidence of Qods Force involvement emerged in interrogations of the network's captured leader and other cell members rolled up in subsequent raids over the past month.
"We discovered a 22-page memorandum on a computer that detailed the planning, preparation, approval process, and conduct of the operation that resulted in five of our soldiers being killed in Karbala," he said.
And considering the rarity of U.S. soldiers going missing after an engagement there may be much more to this story to unfold -- especially remembering that at first the military categorically denied that any soldiers were kidnapped at Karbala.
AND THEN THERE'S THE CONNECTION to Cheney. The attack and executions at Karbala occurred soon after the U.S. raided and 'detained' 5 Iranians who Iraq said were consular members but the U.S. said were members of Iran's Qods force. And as noted above, Petraeus claims that it was these same forces behind the tragedy at Karbala.
And today, another attack, and more 'missing' troops, following just two days after this...
Cheney 'warns' Iran on visit to USS Stennis
Vice President Cheney, visiting a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf, vowed today to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and "dominating" the region, and he pledged that U.S. forces would keep open the sea lanes that carry about 20 percent of the world's oil trade...
"Throughout the region our country has interests to protect and commitments to honor," Cheney said. "With two carrier strike groups in the Gulf, we're sending clear messages to friends and adversaries alike. We'll keep the sea lanes open. We'll stand with our friends in opposing extremism and strategic threats. We'll disrupt attacks on our own forces. We'll continue bringing relief to those who suffer and delivering justice to the enemies of freedom."
Dick Cheney sent a 'clear message', and he may have just gotten his reply.
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This diary by Spread the Word: Iraq-Nam, a daily blog on Iraq -- and increasingly, Iran.